In addition to the high oil prices of recent years that have discouraged consumers from buying new vehicles (as well as wiped out the less efficient two-stroke engines), the depressed economy also has had a profound effect on sales. And that's before taking into account the damages wrought in agricultural areas by last year's devastating floods. The ubiquitous promotion offering "free Jatukam amulets" to would-be motorcycle-buyers seen in many provinces doesn't appear to be working at the moment.

However, the business has had it worse during the post-1997 years.

Although the repossession rate is now climbing again, at least this time around there haven't (yet) been cases of criminal gangs going from province to province and hiring cash-strapped locals to buy motorbikes on small down payments and smuggle the vehicles across the border to sell.

Along with mobile phones, motorcycles were often viewed in the capital as one of the luxury items that "grass-roots" people rushed to buy with free handouts from ex-prime minister Thaksin's village-fund scheme. For the great majority in the country, however, motorbikes are actually a necessity. They not only cover functions served in Bangkok by cars, like going to work or taking the children to school - at a fraction of the price - but for many they are essential for making a living. Bangkok would have to say goodbye to durians, for example, and many other agricultural products, if there were no motorbikes to transport them out of difficult terrain.

That's why motorbikes are hand-down Thailand's vehicle of choice and a good guide to the health of the economy. For a market of one to two million units annually, the four major players, all Thai-Japanese joint ventures, are constantly at each other's throats by releasing new models, their equivalent to "populist policies". Unsurprisingly, all kinds of marketing ploys are also utilised to win the hearts of buyers. The business probably uses more celebrity models than any other durable product.

A few years ago when cheap imports from China were banging at the gate, there was a panic among established local manufacturers. They hurried to design more cost-effective models, with the overall result that motorcycles became cheaper. It was the consumers who profited.

In the end, undoubtedly after furious lobbying, the door was shut to Chinese imports. One can only wonder how much more of a benefit would have been derived from the extra competition. This is not to say that the Chinese products would in the end prevail. Most likely, as with electrical appliances, consumers would discover that the cheapest product is unlikely to be the best, but there would certainly have been progress from the learning experience. But now we will never know, because faith in the opinions of the common people has always been lacking in this country.

Upon first looking at consumer choices, it doesn't seem that people always make rational decisions, as the best-selling motorbikes are often not the ones with the best designs or mechanics. But before writing them off as ignoramuses, as when they "sell out" to Thaksin's populist policies, one needs to look deeper to understand the logic involved in the democracy of choice. One thing that is certain is that nobody buys a motorbike based on petty freebies.

Even more than price, the public's perception of a brand is critical in purchase decisions. Honda's quality control, which is bolstered by its carefully crafted image, accounts for much of the company's continuing success across the country, with roughly two-thirds of market share.

Innovations are also rewarded. Yamaha's foray into "automatic" motorbikes paid off handsomely and is now followed even by the market leader. What won't sell a product, on the other hand, is an elitist attitude unresponsive to the interest and opinions of "buyers".

In his famous 1974 novel cum philosophy exposition "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values", Richard Pirsig made "quality" his central theme while refusing to define it. In the same vein, this government seems to take a Zen-like approach to economy. While scanning the sky for largely undefined "gross national happiness", the administration is perceived to give short shrift to "fingers pointing toward the moon", namely economic indices and numbers.

That consumers are sealing their purses may thus be read as a commentary on the lack of choice and clear direction. It's as if all motorcycle companies had been, for the sake of unity, merged into one monopoly with no market-research department. Who can blame them for wanting different products from beyond these borders, even if the products are toxic?

Some people will remember Tiger motorbikes, which soon after 1997 rode into the country's consciousness as Thailand's own motorcycle brand. Now Tiger, as Thanin has done for televisions and radios before it, looks to have proven again that lofty idealism is no substitute for a sound business model.

As customers stay away, those in the motorcycle business meanwhile can use their new-found free time to learn the official doublespeak where c-r-i-s-i-s is pronounced "opportunity", and b-a-d spells "good", while patiently waiting for the election to bring an end to this "interesting time". May they have what they wish for.

Paisarn Likhitpreechakul

Bangkok

Paisarn Likhitpreechakul is a freelance writer. His family began business as a motorcycle dealership when he was seven. Despite his lifelong attempts to run away from the business, fate would not hear of it.